CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-08-15T17:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-08-15T17:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21205/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with an M1.0 flare from Active Region 13078 (near S25W02). The source signature of this CME is visible in SDO AIA 193/304 starting around 2022-08-15T14:33Z. It is visible towards the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 but not in STEREO A COR2 due to an ongoing outage.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-18T12:22Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-08-15 20:44 â- Time at C2: 2022-08-15 17:12 â- Radial speed: 625.0 km/s â- Half angle: 35 deg â- Eruption location: S25E10 âInferences: ââ - Associated flare: M2.7 (S23W01). Peak at 2022-08-15 16:40 âPredictions for Earth: ââ - In-situ shock speed: 586.45 km/s ââ - Shock arrival time: 2022-08-18 12:22 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.17 hours)Lead Time: 21.13 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-08-17T15:14Z
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